Trump reloaded

According to the first official election results, Donald Trump is the clear winner of the 2024 presidential election. This means that the USA is facing an extremely critical turning point in its history. “Now the exact scenario that we have already predicted several times is occurring: America is on a direct path to autocracy,” says Dr. Heinz-Werner Rapp, founder and director of the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute. Back in 2016, the FERI Institute had already predicted Trump’s election victory, contrary to the majority opinion at the time.

Attack on US democracy

According to the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute, a second Trump presidency entails serious risks. Protected by the Supreme Court, which guarantees presidential immunity, Trump is likely to move very quickly to transform the USA into a presidential dictatorship. “Trump will immediately demonstrate his anti-democratic stance and massively restructure the state’s power apparatus – including with clearly unconstitutional measures,” explains Rapp. The aim is a massive concentration of power in the office of the US president, reinforced by a large-scale elimination of democratic checks and balances. This not only undermines the principle of the separation of powers, but also endangers the independence of the US Department of Justice and the FBI. “It is to be expected that Trump will abuse these institutions to persecute political opponents. In addition, Trump will pardon the Capitol stormers of January 6, 2021 – and possibly even himself,” said Rapp.

New risks for the global economy and financial system

During his second presidency, Trump is aiming for a comprehensive “power grab” that will not stop at the neutrality of the US Federal Reserve. “Trump wants direct control of interest rate and currency policy. This threatens the integrity of the US financial system and creates global uncertainty,” warns Rapp. The role of the US dollar as a global anchor currency will also be endangered in the future. Added to this is Trump’s planned introduction of high US tariffs, which will place a heavy burden on Europe and the global economy.

“We clearly identified the multitude of these new risks in our analysis ‘Trump reloaded’ in January 2024. Large parts of this scenario will now definitely become reality,” explains Rapp. Entrepreneurs, investors and market participants are required to continuously assess and price in the economic and geopolitical consequences of ‘Trump 2.0’ from now on.