Could Recent Developments in Aberdeen’s Q3 House View Trigger Rating Agency Reactions?

Aberdeen Investments’ latest Q3 House View presents a cautiously optimistic outlook amid mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainty. But while investors are adjusting their strategies, a key question arises: Could these developments be significant enough to provoke a reassessment by credit rating agencies?

Trade Policy and “US Exceptionalism” Under Scrutiny

One of the report’s central themes is the fading notion of “US Exceptionalism”—a term used to describe the country’s leadership in economic growth, technological innovation, and market performance. Aberdeen signals that this exceptionalism is under threat from stagnant growth prospects, rising inflationary pressures, and erratic policy signals.

Credit rating agencies like Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch closely monitor these macroeconomic dynamics. Although Aberdeen does not foresee a US recession, a persistently high tariff regime (expected to settle around 12%) could act as a stagflationary drag. In isolation, this might not be enough to prompt a downgrade, but when combined with fiscal expansion, political uncertainty, and a weakening US dollar, it could influence the agencies’ outlooks or watchlists for the U.S. sovereign rating.

Bond Market Volatility and Fiscal Expansion