Boom, Bust, and Polleit: The Economist Investors Can’t Ignore

In a time of growing economic distortion, monetary manipulation, and geopolitical uncertainty, discerning investors are increasingly seeking voices that go beyond the mainstream. One such voice—sharp, consistent, and grounded in decades of rigorous thought—is that of Dr. Thorsten Polleit. His Boom & Bust Report, launched in April 2024, has rapidly become essential reading for those who want to understand what’s really happening behind the façade of central bank communication, manipulated interest rates, and inflated asset markets. For anyone serious about protecting wealth and navigating the deeper structural forces shaping the financial world, reading Polleit is inspiring.

With its rigorous analysis, sharp commentary, and unapologetically contrarian stance, the report is increasingly gaining recognition not only among German-speaking investors but also across the international financial community. Polleit, long a prominent voice in Germany’s libertarian and Austrian School economics circles, is now building a global audience of investors and analysts seeking deeper insight into the underlying forces driving modern markets.

The Boom & Bust Report is more than a traditional macroeconomic update. It offers readers a sweeping perspective on current economic developments, grounded in classical liberal thought and a deep skepticism toward fiat money systems and central bank policies. Delivered as a professionally formatted digital publication, the report combines clear narrative with rich historical data, charts, and bold theses. It is not afraid to challenge mainstream financial media or central bank orthodoxy.

A central theme in the July 2025 issue is what Polleit calls a “structural break” between long-term interest rates and the price of gold. Historically, falling interest rates supported higher gold prices, while rising yields pressured the metal. But since 2020, this pattern has been upended. Gold has continued to surge—recently exceeding $3,400 per ounce—even as long-term yields have climbed above 4%, a level not seen since before the 2008 crisis.

Polleit sees this as more than an anomaly. It signals, in his view, a fundamental erosion of market trust in the fiat currency system. He argues that interest rates, long considered an honest price signal in the credit markets, are now heavily manipulated by central banks and no longer reflect true supply and demand. If interest rates are artificially suppressed or controlled, then gold—immune to such interventions—emerges as a more honest barometer of monetary instability.

This has deep implications for investors and especially for the credit rating industry. Polleit argues that ratings, often based on market-based signals such as bond yields or debt sustainability metrics, can no longer be taken at face value when the foundational pricing mechanism—interest rates—is no longer free. The result is a growing disconnect between perceived creditworthiness and actual systemic risk.

He outlines two possible scenarios: one in which the gold market is accurately anticipating renewed interest rate cuts and a further expansion of monetary supply—a continuation of the current debt-based economic model; and another in which gold prices have overshot and will face correction. Polleit clearly favors the first view, recommending that long-term investors maintain or expand their gold holdings.

Beyond market analysis, Polleit devotes significant space to a thorough critique of central banking itself. He dismantles what he calls the “myth of independent central banks,” arguing that most central banks, particularly in the West, are now effectively subordinated to the fiscal needs of their respective governments. The consequence, he warns, is a growing risk of “fiscal dominance”—a condition in which monetary policy serves to fund expanding government deficits, even at the cost of higher inflation and long-term financial instability.

In this context, credit ratings again face distortion. When governments rely on central banks to manage their debt burdens through artificially low interest rates, traditional credit metrics lose meaning. A country may appear solvent on paper, but only because it enjoys artificially suppressed borrowing costs.

Polleit’s growing influence can be attributed to his ability to combine academic rigor with actionable insight. He speaks directly to investors who no longer trust the status quo and are searching for guidance outside the bounds of mainstream consensus. In an increasingly unstable macroeconomic environment, his voice—rooted in the Austrian tradition but highly attuned to current realities—is resonating far beyond Germany’s borders.

For international readers, Boom & Bust is becoming a critical source of ideas and analysis. As more investors begin to question the sustainability of global debt levels, the credibility of fiat currencies, and the reliability of official data, Polleit’s warnings—and recommendations—are likely to find an even broader audience.