Tag: economy
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Rating the Backbone: The Crucial Role of Credit Ratings in Assessing Systemically Important Tech Giants
In a world increasingly driven by a small number of powerful technology firms, the importance of timely and accurate credit ratings has never been higher. Companies such as TSMC, ASML, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, SAP, Oracle, Huawei, Ericsson, and ARM form the digital backbone of modern economies. Any disruption in their operations —…
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Boom, Bust, and Polleit: The Economist Investors Can’t Ignore
In a time of growing economic distortion, monetary manipulation, and geopolitical uncertainty, discerning investors are increasingly seeking voices that go beyond the mainstream. One such voice—sharp, consistent, and grounded in decades of rigorous thought—is that of Dr. Thorsten Polleit. His Boom & Bust Report, launched in April 2024, has rapidly become essential reading for those who…
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Could Recent Developments in Aberdeen’s Q3 House View Trigger Rating Agency Reactions?
Aberdeen Investments’ latest Q3 House View presents a cautiously optimistic outlook amid mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainty. But while investors are adjusting their strategies, a key question arises: Could these developments be significant enough to provoke a reassessment by credit rating agencies? Trade Policy and “US Exceptionalism” Under Scrutiny One of the report’s central themes…
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European Investment Banking and Capital Markets Activity Slows in H1 2025: Implications for Rating Agencies
According to data from LSEG Deals Intelligence, investment banking fees (more precisely, commissions) in Europe totaled an estimated US$13.4 billion in the first half of 2025. This marks an 11% year-over-year decline, though still higher than the levels recorded in the first half of 2023 and 2022. Debt capital markets (DCM) underwriting commissions reached US$5.8 billion,…
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Chile’s Financial Market Deepens as Moody’s Acquires ICR Chile
Chile’s financial market has long been one of the more stable and transparent systems in Latin America, marked by strong institutions and a deepening domestic capital market. In a move that underscores both Chile’s rising significance and the international appetite for quality credit information, Moody’s Corporation announced it has fully acquired ICR Chile, one of…
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Interpreting UBP’s Outlook Amid Policy Shifts and Market Volatility
Disclaimer: The following interpretations are based on an analysis published by Union Bancaire Privée (UBP). They reflect possible implications and not definitive outcomes. These developments carry several implications for credit ratings across asset classes and regions. Macroeconomic Stability and Sovereign Ratings The stabilization of U.S. economic data and the subsiding recession risks may offer short-term…
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Surprising U.S. Inflation Data for May Signals Limited Price Pressure
In a notable development for financial markets and monetary policy, U.S. consumer prices rose by just 0.1% in May, significantly below expectations. As a result, the annual inflation rate edged up only slightly, from 2.3% to 2.4%, while the core inflation rate—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—remained stable at 2.8%. These numbers highlight a…
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Potential Consequences for Scope Ratings if Greensill Bank Allegations Are Confirmed
If the serious allegations surrounding the collapse of Greensill Bank are confirmed, significant consequences could loom for the Berlin-based credit rating agency Scope Ratings. As the agency to have provided Greensill Bank with a credit rating prior to its dramatic collapse in March 2021, Scope may face legal, reputational, and regulatory fallout. Legal Risks: Exposure…
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ESMA Imposes Fine on Modefinance S.r.l. for Misleading Use of Its Name
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has fined the Italian credit rating agency Modefinance S.r.l. EUR 420,000 for breaching the Credit Rating Agencies Regulation (CRA Regulation). The penalty was imposed after the company was found to have misleadingly used ESMA’s name in statements regarding its credit rating activities. Misuse of ESMA’s Name According to…
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Stable Credit Ratings Ahead, Amid Trade Tariffs: A Clear Framework for Negotiations
In response to the newly announced international trade tariffs, Johanna Kyrklund, Group Chief Investment Officer at Schroders, and George Brown, Economist at Schroders, provide insight into the economic implications, including potential effects on growth, inflation, and the most affected countries. While initial reactions have been negative, a closer analysis suggests that these developments may support…
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The Issue of Implied State Support and the New BaFin Circular 06/2025 (BA) on the Exercise of the Option under Article 495e CRR
The topic of implied state support in financial regulations has been a matter of discussion for years, particularly in relation to credit assessments and risk-weighted assets under the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR). The Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) has recently issued Circular 06/2025 (BA), which provides clarity on the exercise of the option under Article 495e…
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Deutsche Bank’s 2024 Annual Report: Liquidity and Credit Ratings in Focus
The Deutsche Bank recently released its 2024 Annual Report, providing insights into its liquidity and capital management, as well as its credit ratings from major rating agencies. The report highlights the bank’s progress in strengthening its financial position, despite a dynamic economic and geopolitical environment. Liquidity and Capital Management The bank’s liquidity risk management is…
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Regulatory Update: The Exercise of the Discretionary Right Under Article 495e CRR
The German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) has recently issued a draft circular (xx/2025 BA) concerning the exercise of the discretionary right under Article 495e of the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR). This document provides guidelines for certain financial institutions on the continued use of External Credit Assessment Institution (ECAI) ratings that assume implicit government support…
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A Political Defeat That Might Turn into an Opportunity
At first glance, failing to clear the five-percent hurdle in the 2025 Bundestag election seems like a catastrophic defeat for the FDP. Having lost significant support as a junior partner in the previous traffic light coalition, the party could not recover from its downward trajectory. However, when considering the political and economic realities of the…
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Implications for Credit Ratings: Japan’s Market Transformation and Corporate Reform
Japan’s stock market is undergoing a fundamental transformation that goes beyond short-term cyclical trends, according to June-Yon Kim, Lead Portfolio Manager for Japanese equities at Lazard Asset Management. For decades, Japan’s equity market had been weighed down by deflation and structural inefficiencies. However, this has been followed by a prolonged phase of remarkable transformation, including…
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Navigating the Fixed Income Landscape in 2025: A Strategic Perspective
The year 2025 has begun with volatility in fixed income markets, largely driven by fluctuations in 10-year Treasury yields. Inflation concerns and uncertainty regarding trade policy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary strategy have contributed to the unpredictable landscape. According to UBP, “The Fed remains cautious about further rate cuts due to persistent inflation, leading to…
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Higher Price Elasticity of Demand: A Double-Edged Sword Amid Rising Tariffs on European Vehicle Makers
The introduction of higher tariffs on vehicle imports by the United States presents a complex challenge for European original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). While much of the focus has been on direct trade impacts and supply chain disruptions, there is a subtler economic dynamic at play: the role of price elasticity of demand. Higher price elasticity,…
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Industrial Real Estate Market Outlook 2025: Key Trends and Insights
The industrial real estate sector continues to evolve amidst changing market conditions. The IndustrialPort Observer 2025 survey gathered insights from industry experts, including property owners, asset managers, and appraisers, to assess the market sentiment and forecast trends for the coming year. Market Sentiment: A Shift Towards Caution The survey indicates a shift towards a more…
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Strong Debt Issuance Volumes Drive Higher Ratings Revenue Forecasts
The recent Goldman Sachs study highlights an impressive growth in global debt issuance volumes during the fourth quarter of 2024, which has significantly impacted ratings revenue forecasts for major players such as S&P Global (SPGI) and Moody’s Corporation (MCO). This development underscores the resilience of the financial markets and provides a promising outlook for 2025.…
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The Development of Scope Ratings’ Market Share 2024
Scope Ratings GmbH, a European credit rating agency (CRA), has shown a consistent, albeit modest, increase in market share over recent years. According to the 2024 CRA Market Share Report published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), Scope Ratings’ market share grew to 1.83% according to the 2024 report, compared to 1.72% in…
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Strategic Shift Towards Bonds in apoBank’s Capital Market Outlook 2025
The Deutsche Apotheker- und Ärztebank (apoBank) has announced a significant shift in its capital market strategy for 2025. Germany’s largest cooperative primary bank is adopting a more defensive investment approach, moving from a “neutral” stance on equities to an “underweight” position. Simultaneously, apoBank is increasing its allocation to bonds, shifting to an “overweight” stance. “The…
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Angela Merkel’s Shortcomings During the Global Financial Crisis
Angela Merkel’s new book, “Freiheit: Erinnerungen 1954–2021”, offers an in-depth reflection on her life and 16-year tenure as Germany’s first female Chancellor. Co-written with her long-time advisor Beate Baumann, the memoir spans Merkel’s early years in East Germany, her rise in the unified German political landscape, and her navigation of major global crises, including the…
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Stability and Continuity: Implications of China’s Approach for Corporate Credit Ratings
In an era defined by uncertainty, businesses and investors are increasingly seeking stability and continuity as key indicators of creditworthiness. This theme was underscored during Yiyang Huang’s address at the 10th China Day, held as part of the 27th Euro Finance Week. Representing the Consulate General of the People’s Republic of China, Huang highlighted China’s…
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Trump’s Victory: Implications for Global Corporate Credit Ratings Across Sectors and Regions
The election of Donald Trump, as discussed by Prof. Dr. Jan Viebig of ODDO BHF SE, carries significant implications for the credit ratings of companies across different countries and sectors. His policies, characterized by a shift toward protectionism, corporate tax cuts, and deregulation, are likely to have distinct effects on credit stability, particularly impacting European…
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Moldova Receives ‘B+’ Rating with Stable Outlook from Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings has assigned the Republic of Moldova a Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘B+’ with a Stable Outlook. This rating highlights the country’s steady commitment to maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability through prudent fiscal policies, a credible inflation-targeting framework, and a flexible exchange rate regime. These factors, combined with a resilient banking…
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