Tag: politics
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Could Recent Developments in Aberdeen’s Q3 House View Trigger Rating Agency Reactions?
Aberdeen Investments’ latest Q3 House View presents a cautiously optimistic outlook amid mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainty. But while investors are adjusting their strategies, a key question arises: Could these developments be significant enough to provoke a reassessment by credit rating agencies? Trade Policy and “US Exceptionalism” Under Scrutiny One of the report’s central themes…
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Stable Credit Ratings Ahead, Amid Trade Tariffs: A Clear Framework for Negotiations
In response to the newly announced international trade tariffs, Johanna Kyrklund, Group Chief Investment Officer at Schroders, and George Brown, Economist at Schroders, provide insight into the economic implications, including potential effects on growth, inflation, and the most affected countries. While initial reactions have been negative, a closer analysis suggests that these developments may support…
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The Issue of Implied State Support and the New BaFin Circular 06/2025 (BA) on the Exercise of the Option under Article 495e CRR
The topic of implied state support in financial regulations has been a matter of discussion for years, particularly in relation to credit assessments and risk-weighted assets under the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR). The Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) has recently issued Circular 06/2025 (BA), which provides clarity on the exercise of the option under Article 495e…
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Regulatory Update: The Exercise of the Discretionary Right Under Article 495e CRR
The German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) has recently issued a draft circular (xx/2025 BA) concerning the exercise of the discretionary right under Article 495e of the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR). This document provides guidelines for certain financial institutions on the continued use of External Credit Assessment Institution (ECAI) ratings that assume implicit government support…
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A Political Defeat That Might Turn into an Opportunity
At first glance, failing to clear the five-percent hurdle in the 2025 Bundestag election seems like a catastrophic defeat for the FDP. Having lost significant support as a junior partner in the previous traffic light coalition, the party could not recover from its downward trajectory. However, when considering the political and economic realities of the…
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Higher Price Elasticity of Demand: A Double-Edged Sword Amid Rising Tariffs on European Vehicle Makers
The introduction of higher tariffs on vehicle imports by the United States presents a complex challenge for European original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). While much of the focus has been on direct trade impacts and supply chain disruptions, there is a subtler economic dynamic at play: the role of price elasticity of demand. Higher price elasticity,…
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Angela Merkel’s Shortcomings During the Global Financial Crisis
Angela Merkel’s new book, “Freiheit: Erinnerungen 1954–2021”, offers an in-depth reflection on her life and 16-year tenure as Germany’s first female Chancellor. Co-written with her long-time advisor Beate Baumann, the memoir spans Merkel’s early years in East Germany, her rise in the unified German political landscape, and her navigation of major global crises, including the…
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Stability and Continuity: Implications of China’s Approach for Corporate Credit Ratings
In an era defined by uncertainty, businesses and investors are increasingly seeking stability and continuity as key indicators of creditworthiness. This theme was underscored during Yiyang Huang’s address at the 10th China Day, held as part of the 27th Euro Finance Week. Representing the Consulate General of the People’s Republic of China, Huang highlighted China’s…
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Trump’s Victory: Implications for Global Corporate Credit Ratings Across Sectors and Regions
The election of Donald Trump, as discussed by Prof. Dr. Jan Viebig of ODDO BHF SE, carries significant implications for the credit ratings of companies across different countries and sectors. His policies, characterized by a shift toward protectionism, corporate tax cuts, and deregulation, are likely to have distinct effects on credit stability, particularly impacting European…
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Trump reloaded
According to the first official election results, Donald Trump is the clear winner of the 2024 presidential election. This means that the USA is facing an extremely critical turning point in its history. “Now the exact scenario that we have already predicted several times is occurring: America is on a direct path to autocracy,” says…
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Moldova Receives ‘B+’ Rating with Stable Outlook from Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings has assigned the Republic of Moldova a Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘B+’ with a Stable Outlook. This rating highlights the country’s steady commitment to maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability through prudent fiscal policies, a credible inflation-targeting framework, and a flexible exchange rate regime. These factors, combined with a resilient banking…
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